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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the current race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still